Abstract:
Throughout a field’s life cycle, different factors will contribute to reservoir uncertainty. As
reservoirs mature, petrophysical properties often become a major source of uncertainty,
especially as marginal rocks and complex fluid variations become increasingly important. Despite its importance, petrophysical uncertainty has received relatively little focus in the literature, yet it should be a core part of subsurface workflows. This lecture will present examples which highlight where petrophysical uncertainty has proven to be critical.
By understanding uncertainty and analysing sensitivity, projects and businesses can improve
outcomes. Risks tied to uncertainties can be managed more effectively, increasing the likelihood of achieving the expected business value.
By identifying key uncertainties and sensitivities early in the process, teams can allocate
resources more effectively and focus on areas that offer the largest potential impact. This early integration helps avoid last-minute changes, minimizes delays, and ensures that projects remain aligned with both technical and financial objectives.
Integrating uncertainty into decision-making is effective at countering bias, strengthens project
success and reduces unexpected challenges, allowing for resilient, well-informed decisions.
The one idea that members should take away from this lecture is that uncertainty should be
addressed prior to detailed studies and be continuously and fully integrated into subsurface
workflows using data driven approaches. This will support the prioritisation of work, highlight
future data requirements and ensure the impact of uncertainty is assessed at core, well, and
model levels, minimising the impact of bias, leading to improved project performance and project outcomes.


Biography:
Russell Farmer has more than 30 years of oil and gas industry experience including twelve years with Shell, six years as a consultant and twelve years with bp. In bp, Russell led teams in Iraq, Angola, Global Assurance, Middle East Oil and as Discipline Leader for Global Subsurface Solutions, Modelling and Rock Properties. Russell joined ADNOC in 2022 as Principal Petrophysicist and leads the discipline, focused on people development, technical standards, best practices and quality assurance of complex reservoirs. He is passionate about sharing knowledgeand has spent fifteen years developing and facilitating training classes for formation evaluation professionals worldwide. 


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